Water AetherwingTier 1
at canyon store champion
decks
3
(13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
9-5-2
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1379
· median 1370
· range 1233–1535
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1124
Q1 1226
Q3 1388
1550
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.5% | -8.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
